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Kubrat vs Fratria II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
CANC
13:00
Fratria II
Fratria II
4/19/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kubrat44%
×Draw23%
Fratria II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
1.72
Fratria II
1.47

Kubrat creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Fratria II
0.80

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Fratria II
2.70

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Fratria II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Fratria II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
67%
Kubrat or Fratria II
77%
Draw or Fratria II
56%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
23%
Fratria II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
82%
Kubrat 2+ goals
51%
Kubrat 3+ goals
25%
Fratria II 1+ goals
77%
Fratria II 2+ goals
43%
Fratria II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
57%
Fratria II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Fratria II away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Fratria II defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 1.72

Fratria II attack 0.80 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kubrat scores more
44%
level
23%
Fratria II scores more
33%

Kubrat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kubrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kubrat host Fratria II

April 19, 2025: Kubrat take on Fratria II in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.