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Kubrat vs Botev Novi Pazar — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
CANC
00:00
Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
3/29/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kubrat47%
×Draw23%
Botev Novi Pazar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
1.86
Botev Novi Pazar
1.46

Kubrat creates 27% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Botev Novi Pazar
0.77

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Botev Novi Pazar
2.98

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
70%
Kubrat or Botev Novi Pazar
77%
Draw or Botev Novi Pazar
53%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
26%
Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
84%
Kubrat 2+ goals
55%
Kubrat 3+ goals
28%
Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
77%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
43%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
61%
Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 1.86

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kubrat scores more
47%
level
23%
Botev Novi Pazar scores more
30%

Kubrat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kubrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kubrat vs Botev Novi Pazar — Match Preview

Kubrat face Botev Novi Pazar on March 29, 2020 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kubrat host Botev Novi Pazar at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.