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Kubrat vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
FT
1 – 0
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
10/28/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 10Gradski stadion (Kubrat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kubrat59%
×Draw20%
Benkovski Byala21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
2.17
Benkovski Byala
1.22

Kubrat creates 78% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
79%
Kubrat or Benkovski Byala
80%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
41%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
36%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
89%
Kubrat 2+ goals
64%
Kubrat 3+ goals
36%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
70%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
34%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
74%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kubrat scores more
59%
level
20%
Benkovski Byala scores more
21%

Kubrat at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kubrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kubrat vs Benkovski Byala

Kubrat beat Benkovski Byala 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Kubrat).