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Kubrat vs Aksakovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
CANC
15:00
Aksakovo
Aksakovo
5/25/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kubrat33%
×Draw24%
Aksakovo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
1.42
Aksakovo
1.66

Aksakovo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Aksakovo
1.17

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Aksakovo
2.10

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Aksakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Aksakovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
57%
Kubrat or Aksakovo
76%
Draw or Aksakovo
67%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
15%
Aksakovo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
76%
Kubrat 2+ goals
41%
Kubrat 3+ goals
17%
Aksakovo 1+ goals
81%
Aksakovo 2+ goals
49%
Aksakovo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
43%
Aksakovo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Aksakovo away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Aksakovo defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Aksakovo attack 1.17 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kubrat scores more
33%
level
24%
Aksakovo scores more
43%

Aksakovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aksakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kubrat face Aksakovo (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Kubrat hosting Aksakovo. Match starts May 25, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.