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Kubikenborg vs Vasteras SK FK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Kubikenborg
Kubikenborg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
8/19/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKubikenborgs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kubikenborg18%
×Draw18%
Vasteras SK FK63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubikenborg
1.25
Vasteras SK FK
2.46

Vasteras SK FK creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kubikenborg
1.33
Vasteras SK FK
1.58

allows per match

Kubikenborg
3.33
Vasteras SK FK
1.16

finishing

Kubikenborg+0.00on par
Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubikenborg ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kubikenborg or draw
37%
Kubikenborg or Vasteras SK FK
82%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
82%

Winning margin

Kubikenborg wins by 2+
7%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Kubikenborg 1+ goals
71%
Kubikenborg 2+ goals
36%
Kubikenborg 3+ goals
13%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
91%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
70%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Kubikenborg (draw refunded)
22%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubikenborg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubikenborg attack 1.33 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.58 + Kubikenborg defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kubikenborg scores more
18%
level
18%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
63%

Vasteras SK FK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kubikenborg vs Vasteras SK FK

Vasteras SK FK beat Kubikenborg 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Kubikenborgs IP in Sundsvall.