Kuban U19 0–0 UOR №5 U20: Result & Stats

Kuban U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UOR №5 U20

3/31/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 3Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kuban U1956%

×Draw20%

UOR №5 U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban U19Expected goals in this matchUOR №5 U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.42

Kuban U19

2.25

UOR №5 U20

1.42

Kuban U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

1.86

creates per match

1.40

1.43

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Kuban U19

1.86

UOR №5 U20

1.40

allows per match

Kuban U19

1.43

UOR №5 U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban U19+0.00on par

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban U19 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kuban U19 or draw

76%

Kuban U19 or UOR №5 U20

80%

Draw or UOR №5 U20

44%

Winning margin

Kuban U19 wins by 2+

34%

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kuban U19 1+ goals

89%

Kuban U19 2+ goals

65%

Kuban U19 3+ goals

39%

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

76%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

41%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)

70%

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban U19 attack 1.86 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.25

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Kuban U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kuban U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

UOR №5 U20 scores more

24%

Kuban U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff