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Kuban U19 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Kuban U19
Kuban U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
3/9/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 1Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kuban U1963%
×Draw19%
Orenburg U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban U19
2.26
Orenburg U19
1.11

Kuban U19 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kuban U19
1.86
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

Kuban U19
1.43
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

Kuban U19+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kuban U19 or draw
82%
Kuban U19 or Orenburg U19
81%
Draw or Orenburg U19
37%

Winning margin

Kuban U19 wins by 2+
40%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kuban U19 1+ goals
89%
Kuban U19 2+ goals
66%
Kuban U19 3+ goals
39%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
67%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
30%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban U19 attack 1.86 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.26

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Kuban U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kuban U19 scores more
63%
level
19%
Orenburg U19 scores more
18%

Kuban U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuban U19 vs Orenburg U19

Kuban U19 beat Orenburg U19 4-1 in Youth Championship on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.