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Kuban Kholding vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Cup 2019

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
9/24/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuban Kholding24%
×Draw23%
Volga Ulyanovsk53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.20
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.89

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.40
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.57

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
2.20
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
47%
Kuban Kholding or Volga Ulyanovsk
77%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
76%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
10%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
70%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
34%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
12%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
85%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
56%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
31%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.40 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.57 + Kuban Kholding defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
24%
level
23%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
53%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kuban Kholding 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk

Kuban Kholding and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 2-2 in Cup on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.