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Kuban Kholding vs Spartak Nalchik — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
3/24/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Kuban Kholding47%
×Draw26%
Spartak Nalchik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.48
Spartak Nalchik
1.06

Kuban Kholding creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 96 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Spartak Nalchik
1.24

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Spartak Nalchik
1.33

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Spartak Nalchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
73%
Kuban Kholding or Spartak Nalchik
74%
Draw or Spartak Nalchik
53%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
23%
Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
77%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
43%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
65%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
29%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
63%
Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
47%
level
26%
Spartak Nalchik scores more
27%

Kuban Kholding at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 1–0 Spartak Nalchik

Kuban Kholding beat Spartak Nalchik 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.