Kuban Kholding 1–0 Kaluga: Result & Stats

Kuban Kholding

1 – 0

Kaluga

2/14/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuban Kholding63%

×Draw22%

Kaluga15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban KholdingExpected goals in this matchKaluga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.78

Kuban Kholding

1.88

Kaluga

0.78

Kuban Kholding creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

0.57

1.00

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Kuban Kholding

1.33

Kaluga

0.57

allows per match

Kuban Kholding

1.00

Kaluga

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Kaluga →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw

85%

Kuban Kholding or Kaluga

78%

Draw or Kaluga

37%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

38%

Kaluga wins by 2+

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

85%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

56%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

29%

Kaluga 1+ goals

54%

Kaluga 2+ goals

18%

Kaluga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

81%

Kaluga (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.33 + Kaluga defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kaluga attack 0.57 + Kuban Kholding defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more

63%

level

22%

Kaluga scores more

15%

Kuban Kholding at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff