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Kuban Kholding vs FC UFA — Cup 2019

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC UFA
FC UFA
10/5/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuban Kholding26%
×Draw25%
FC UFA49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.05
FC UFA
1.55

FC UFA creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.40
FC UFA
0.90

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
2.20
FC UFA
0.70

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
51%
Kuban Kholding or FC UFA
75%
Draw or FC UFA
74%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
10%
FC UFA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
65%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
28%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
9%
FC UFA 1+ goals
79%
FC UFA 2+ goals
46%
FC UFA 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
35%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.40 + FC UFA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

FC UFA attack 0.90 + Kuban Kholding defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
26%
level
25%
FC UFA scores more
49%

FC UFA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kuban Kholding 0–1 FC UFA

FC UFA beat Kuban Kholding 1-0 in Cup on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.