Kuban Kholding 0–5 FC Sochi: Result & Stats | Cup

Kuban Kholding

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

FC Sochi

P. Meleshin 78', 39'

I. Safronov 69'

R. Bart 64', 56'

9/24/2024

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuban Kholding33%

×Draw23%

FC Sochi44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban KholdingExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.76

Kuban Kholding

1.51

FC Sochi

1.76

FC Sochi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.31

2.20

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Kuban Kholding

1.40

FC Sochi

1.31

allows per match

Kuban Kholding

2.20

FC Sochi

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

FC Sochi →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw

56%

Kuban Kholding or FC Sochi

77%

Draw or FC Sochi

67%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

16%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

78%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

44%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

19%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

83%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

52%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

43%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.40 + FC Sochi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC Sochi attack 1.31 + Kuban Kholding defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more

33%

level

23%

FC Sochi scores more

44%

FC Sochi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Rodislav Trefilov

39'

P. Meleshin

46'

Sergey Kopylov I← P. Banshchikov

46'

R. Veselovskiy← D. Bakumovich

46'

A. Revazov← D. Krasnov

55'

Atsamaz Revazov

56'

R. Bart

60'

Ruslan Bart

60'

D. Chigirev← N. Fadeev

64'

R. Bart

65'

Andrey Maloletov

67'

I. Safronov← V. Lazarev

69'

I. Safronov

70'

S. Kalinov← A. Makarchuk

70'

S. Sharipov← A. Makarov

70'

M. Nosaty← R. Bart

71'

K. Zakharov← I. Sapozhnikov

73'

P. Platonov← P. Maslov

75'

78'

Kuban

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Fomin

46'▲Sergey Kopylov I←▼P. Banshchikov

46'▲R. Veselovskiy←▼D. Bakumovich

46'▲A. Revazov←▼D. Krasnov

60'▲D. Chigirev←▼N. Fadeev

71'▲K. Zakharov←▼I. Sapozhnikov

Kuban Kholding substitutes

IVeselovskiyRevazovChigirevZakharov

Manager: Robert Moreno

67'▲I. Safronov←▼V. Lazarev

70'▲S. Kalinov←▼A. Makarchuk

70'▲S. Sharipov←▼A. Makarov

70'▲M. Nosaty←▼R. Bart

73'▲P. Platonov←▼P. Maslov

FC Sochi substitutes

SafronovKalinovSharipovNosatyPlatonov