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Kuban Kholding vs Druzhba — Cup 2019

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Druzhba
Druzhba
7/30/2024CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuban Kholding45%
×Draw23%
Druzhba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.80
Druzhba
1.50

Kuban Kholding creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.40
Druzhba
0.80

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
2.20
Druzhba
2.20

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Druzhba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Druzhba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
68%
Kuban Kholding or Druzhba
77%
Draw or Druzhba
55%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
24%
Druzhba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
83%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
54%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
27%
Druzhba 1+ goals
78%
Druzhba 2+ goals
44%
Druzhba 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
58%
Druzhba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Druzhba away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.40 + Druzhba defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Druzhba attack 0.80 + Kuban Kholding defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
45%
level
23%
Druzhba scores more
32%

Kuban Kholding at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kuban Kholding 2–1 Druzhba

Kuban Kholding beat Druzhba 2-1 in Cup on July 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.