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Kuban Kholding vs Astrakhan — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Astrakhan
Astrakhan
10/5/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kuban Kholding46%
×Draw27%
Astrakhan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.42
Astrakhan
1.01

Kuban Kholding creates 41% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Astrakhan
1.15

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Astrakhan
1.21

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
73%
Kuban Kholding or Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Astrakhan
54%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
23%
Astrakhan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
76%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
41%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
17%
Astrakhan 1+ goals
64%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
27%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
63%
Astrakhan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Astrakhan away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Astrakhan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Astrakhan attack 1.15 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
46%
level
27%
Astrakhan scores more
27%

Kuban Kholding at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 2–1 Astrakhan

Kuban Kholding beat Astrakhan 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.