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Kuban Kholding vs Anzhi — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Anzhi
Anzhi
9/6/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kuban Kholding44%
×Draw25%
Anzhi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.50
Anzhi
1.22

Kuban Kholding creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Anzhi
1.56

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Anzhi
1.38

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
69%
Kuban Kholding or Anzhi
75%
Draw or Anzhi
56%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
21%
Anzhi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
78%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
44%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
19%
Anzhi 1+ goals
70%
Anzhi 2+ goals
34%
Anzhi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
59%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Anzhi away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Anzhi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Anzhi attack 1.56 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
44%
level
25%
Anzhi scores more
31%

Kuban Kholding at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuban Kholding vs Anzhi

Anzhi beat Kuban Kholding 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.