Kuban Kholding 5–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Kuban Kholding

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

5/29/2022

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Kuban Kholding65%

×Draw20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban KholdingExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.83

Kuban Kholding

2.02

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.83

Kuban Kholding creates 143% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 58 away

1.62

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Kuban Kholding

1.62

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.78

allows per match

Kuban Kholding

0.88

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw

85%

Kuban Kholding or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

80%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

35%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

87%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

60%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

33%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

56%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

82%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more

65%

level

20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

15%

Kuban Kholding at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff