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Kuala Lumpur FA vs Tampines Rovers — AFC Cup 2018

Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
6/30/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2KLFA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuala Lumpur FA43%
×Draw22%
Tampines Rovers35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuala Lumpur FA
1.97
Tampines Rovers
1.77

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kuala Lumpur FA
2.33
Tampines Rovers
1.53

allows per match

Kuala Lumpur FA
2.00
Tampines Rovers
1.60

finishing

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par
Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuala Lumpur FA ↓

Tampines Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kuala Lumpur FA or draw
65%
Kuala Lumpur FA or Tampines Rovers
78%
Draw or Tampines Rovers
57%

Winning margin

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
24%
Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
86%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
58%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
31%
Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
83%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
53%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
55%
Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuala Lumpur FA at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 2.33 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Tampines Rovers attack 1.53 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
43%
level
22%
Tampines Rovers scores more
35%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Kuala Lumpur FA 2–1 Tampines Rovers

Kuala Lumpur FA beat Tampines Rovers 2-1 in AFC Cup on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at KLFA Stadium in Kuala Lumpur.