Kuala Lumpur FA 1–0 Pusamania Borneo

Kuala Lumpur FA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pusamania Borneo

9/26/2024

ASEAN Club Championship · Group Stage - 2Kuala Lumpur Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuala Lumpur FA65%

×Draw21%

Pusamania Borneo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuala Lumpur FAExpected goals in this matchPusamania Borneo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.83

Kuala Lumpur FA

2.00

Pusamania Borneo

0.83

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.33

Pusamania Borneo

0.67

allows per match

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.00

Pusamania Borneo

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Pusamania Borneo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuala Lumpur FA ↓

Pusamania Borneo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kuala Lumpur FA or draw

85%

Kuala Lumpur FA or Pusamania Borneo

79%

Draw or Pusamania Borneo

35%

Winning margin

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+

40%

Pusamania Borneo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals

86%

Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals

59%

Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals

32%

Pusamania Borneo 1+ goals

56%

Pusamania Borneo 2+ goals

20%

Pusamania Borneo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)

81%

Pusamania Borneo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuala Lumpur FA at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Pusamania Borneo away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.33 + Pusamania Borneo defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pusamania Borneo attack 0.67 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more

65%

level

21%

Pusamania Borneo scores more

15%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff