Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuala Lumpur FA vs Kaya — ASEAN Club Championship 2024

Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kaya
Kaya
8/22/2024ASEAN Club ChampionshipASEAN Club Championship · Group Stage - 1Kuala Lumpur Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuala Lumpur FA74%
×Draw17%
Kaya9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuala Lumpur FA
2.33
Kaya
0.67

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 248% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kuala Lumpur FA
1.33
Kaya
0.33

allows per match

Kuala Lumpur FA
1.00
Kaya
3.33

finishing

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuala Lumpur FA ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kuala Lumpur FA or draw
91%
Kuala Lumpur FA or Kaya
83%
Draw or Kaya
26%

Winning margin

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
51%
Kaya wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
90%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
67%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
41%
Kaya 1+ goals
49%
Kaya 2+ goals
15%
Kaya 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
89%
Kaya (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuala Lumpur FA at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Kaya away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.33 + Kaya defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kaya attack 0.33 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
74%
level
17%
Kaya scores more
9%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuala Lumpur FA vs Kaya

Kuala Lumpur FA beat Kaya 1-0 in ASEAN Club Championship on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Kuala Lumpur Football Stadium in Kuala Lumpur.