KSZO 1929 1–3 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

KSZO 1929

FT

1 – 3

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

9/25/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

KSZO 192955%

×Draw22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KSZO 1929Expected goals in this matchWólczanka W. Pełkińska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.19

KSZO 1929

1.95

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.19

KSZO 1929 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 37 away

1.81

creates per match

1.38

1.01

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

KSZO 1929

1.81

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.38

allows per match

KSZO 1929

1.01

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw

77%

KSZO 1929 or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

78%

Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

45%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+

32%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals

86%

KSZO 1929 2+ goals

58%

KSZO 1929 3+ goals

31%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

70%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

33%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)

70%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.95

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more

55%

level

22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

23%

KSZO 1929 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff