KSZO 1929 2–0 Lewart: Result & Stats

KSZO 1929

FT

2 – 0

Lewart

10/17/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

KSZO 192958%

×Draw23%

Lewart20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KSZO 1929Expected goals in this matchLewart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.98

KSZO 1929

1.85

Lewart

0.98

KSZO 1929 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 37 away

1.81

creates per match

0.95

1.01

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

KSZO 1929

1.81

Lewart

0.95

allows per match

KSZO 1929

1.01

Lewart

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Lewart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw

80%

KSZO 1929 or Lewart

77%

Draw or Lewart

42%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+

33%

Lewart wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals

84%

KSZO 1929 2+ goals

55%

KSZO 1929 3+ goals

28%

Lewart 1+ goals

62%

Lewart 2+ goals

26%

Lewart 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)

75%

Lewart (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lewart attack 0.95 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more

58%

level

23%

Lewart scores more

20%

KSZO 1929 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff