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KSZO 1929 vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
11/5/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KSZO 192964%
×Draw20%
Karpaty Krosno16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KSZO 1929
2.14
Karpaty Krosno
0.97

KSZO 1929 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

KSZO 1929
1.81
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

KSZO 1929
1.01
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw
84%
KSZO 1929 or Karpaty Krosno
80%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
36%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
40%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals
88%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
63%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
36%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
62%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
25%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
80%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.14

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more
64%
level
20%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
16%

KSZO 1929 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: KSZO 1929 5–1 Karpaty Krosno

KSZO 1929 beat Karpaty Krosno 5-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski.