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KSZO 1929 vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
L. I. Mazurek 90+6' (pen)
I. Tymoszenko 53'
D. Morys 74'
K. Durda 58'
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KSZO 192954%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KSZO 1929
1.88
Garbarnia Kraków
1.15

KSZO 1929 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

KSZO 1929
1.81
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

KSZO 1929
1.01
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw
77%
KSZO 1929 or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
46%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
31%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals
85%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
56%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
29%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
68%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
32%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
70%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more
54%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
23%

KSZO 1929 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
I. Tymoszenko
58'
K. Durda
74'
D. Morys
90+6'
L. I. MazurekPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KSZO 1929 vs Garbarnia Kraków

KSZO 1929 and Garbarnia Kraków drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 18, 2023.

Goals: I. Tymoszenko (53'), K. Durda (58'), D. Morys (74'), L. I. Mazurek (90+6' pen).

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy in Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski.