KSZO 1929 0–1 Łagów: Result & Stats

KSZO 1929

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Łagów

3/12/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

KSZO 192942%

×Draw26%

Łagów32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KSZO 1929Expected goals in this matchŁagów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

KSZO 1929

1.42

Łagów

1.19

KSZO 1929 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

1.36

1.01

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

KSZO 1929

1.81

Łagów

1.36

allows per match

KSZO 1929

1.01

Łagów

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Łagów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw

68%

KSZO 1929 or Łagów

74%

Draw or Łagów

58%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+

20%

Łagów wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals

76%

KSZO 1929 2+ goals

41%

KSZO 1929 3+ goals

17%

Łagów 1+ goals

70%

Łagów 2+ goals

33%

Łagów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)

57%

Łagów (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.42

Łagów attack 1.36 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more

42%

level

26%

Łagów scores more

32%

KSZO 1929 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff