Ksour Essef 4–2 Moknine: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ksour Essef

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Moknine

11/30/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksour Essef60%

×Draw21%

Moknine19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ksour EssefExpected goals in this matchMoknine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.02

Ksour Essef

2.02

Moknine

1.02

Ksour Essef creates 98% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 49 away

2.46

creates per match

0.90

1.15

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Ksour Essef

2.46

Moknine

0.90

allows per match

Ksour Essef

1.15

Moknine

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Moknine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksour Essef ↓

Moknine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ksour Essef or draw

81%

Ksour Essef or Moknine

79%

Draw or Moknine

40%

Winning margin

Ksour Essef wins by 2+

37%

Moknine wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ksour Essef 1+ goals

87%

Ksour Essef 2+ goals

60%

Ksour Essef 3+ goals

33%

Moknine 1+ goals

64%

Moknine 2+ goals

27%

Moknine 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)

77%

Moknine (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksour Essef at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Moknine away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksour Essef attack 2.46 + Moknine defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.02

Moknine attack 0.90 + Ksour Essef defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ksour Essef scores more

60%

level

21%

Moknine scores more

19%

Ksour Essef at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ksour Essef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff