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Ksour Essef vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

Ksour Essef
Ksour Essef
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
4/19/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksour Essef57%
×Draw22%
EGS Gafsa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksour Essef
1.87
EGS Gafsa
1.02

Ksour Essef creates 83% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ksour Essef
2.46
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

Ksour Essef
1.15
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

Ksour Essef+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksour Essef ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ksour Essef or draw
80%
Ksour Essef or EGS Gafsa
78%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
43%

Winning margin

Ksour Essef wins by 2+
33%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ksour Essef 1+ goals
85%
Ksour Essef 2+ goals
56%
Ksour Essef 3+ goals
29%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
64%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
27%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)
74%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksour Essef at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksour Essef attack 2.46 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.87

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Ksour Essef defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ksour Essef scores more
57%
level
22%
EGS Gafsa scores more
20%

Ksour Essef at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ksour Essef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Ksour Essef 4–2 EGS Gafsa

Ksour Essef beat EGS Gafsa 4-2 in Ligue 2 on April 19, 2026.