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Ksour Essef vs Djelma — Ligue 2 2020

Ksour Essef
Ksour Essef
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Djelma
Djelma
9/28/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksour Essef64%
×Draw21%
Djelma15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksour Essef
2.02
Djelma
0.85

Ksour Essef creates 138% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ksour Essef
2.46
Djelma
0.55

allows per match

Ksour Essef
1.15
Djelma
1.58

finishing

Ksour Essef+0.00on par
Djelma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksour Essef ↓

Djelma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ksour Essef or draw
85%
Ksour Essef or Djelma
79%
Draw or Djelma
36%

Winning margin

Ksour Essef wins by 2+
40%
Djelma wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ksour Essef 1+ goals
87%
Ksour Essef 2+ goals
60%
Ksour Essef 3+ goals
33%
Djelma 1+ goals
57%
Djelma 2+ goals
21%
Djelma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)
81%
Djelma (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksour Essef at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Djelma away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksour Essef attack 2.46 + Djelma defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

Djelma attack 0.55 + Ksour Essef defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ksour Essef scores more
64%
level
21%
Djelma scores more
15%

Ksour Essef at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ksour Essef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ksour Essef vs Djelma

Ksour Essef beat Djelma 5-1 in Ligue 2 on September 28, 2025.