Ksour Essef 2–0 Ariana: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ksour Essef

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ariana

N. H. Dhaflaoui 44'

A. Chihi 10'

11/2/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksour Essef62%

×Draw21%

Ariana18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ksour EssefExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.02

Ksour Essef

2.08

Ariana

1.02

Ksour Essef creates 104% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 38 away

2.46

creates per match

0.89

1.15

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Ksour Essef

2.46

Ariana

0.89

allows per match

Ksour Essef

1.15

Ariana

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksour Essef ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ksour Essef or draw

82%

Ksour Essef or Ariana

79%

Draw or Ariana

38%

Winning margin

Ksour Essef wins by 2+

38%

Ariana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ksour Essef 1+ goals

87%

Ksour Essef 2+ goals

61%

Ksour Essef 3+ goals

34%

Ariana 1+ goals

64%

Ariana 2+ goals

27%

Ariana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)

78%

Ariana (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksour Essef at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksour Essef attack 2.46 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ariana attack 0.89 + Ksour Essef defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ksour Essef scores more

62%

level

21%

Ariana scores more

18%

Ksour Essef at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ksour Essef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Chihi

44'

N. H. Dhaflaoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff