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Ksar vs Trarza AC — Premier League 2020

Ksar
Ksar
FT
2 – 1
Trarza AC
Trarza AC
2/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ksar38%
×Draw27%
Trarza AC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksar
1.26
Trarza AC
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ksar
0.85
Trarza AC
0.95

allows per match

Ksar
1.41
Trarza AC
1.68

finishing

Ksar+0.00on par
Trarza AC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksar ↓

Trarza AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ksar or draw
66%
Ksar or Trarza AC
73%
Draw or Trarza AC
62%

Winning margin

Ksar wins by 2+
17%
Trarza AC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ksar 1+ goals
72%
Ksar 2+ goals
36%
Ksar 3+ goals
13%
Trarza AC 1+ goals
69%
Trarza AC 2+ goals
33%
Trarza AC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ksar (draw refunded)
53%
Trarza AC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksar at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

Trarza AC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksar attack 0.85 + Trarza AC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.26

Trarza AC attack 0.95 + Ksar defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ksar scores more
38%
level
27%
Trarza AC scores more
34%

Ksar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ksar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ksar vs Trarza AC

Ksar beat Trarza AC 2-1 in Premier League on February 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.