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Ksar vs Police — Premier League 2020

Ksar
Ksar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Police
Police
2/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ksar29%
×Draw29%
Police42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksar
0.99
Police
1.25

Police creates 26% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ksar
0.85
Police
1.10

allows per match

Ksar
1.41
Police
1.12

finishing

Ksar+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksar ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ksar or draw
58%
Ksar or Police
71%
Draw or Police
71%

Winning margin

Ksar wins by 2+
11%
Police wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ksar 1+ goals
63%
Ksar 2+ goals
26%
Ksar 3+ goals
8%
Police 1+ goals
71%
Police 2+ goals
36%
Police 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ksar (draw refunded)
41%
Police (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksar at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

Police away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksar attack 0.85 + Police defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Police attack 1.10 + Ksar defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ksar scores more
29%
level
29%
Police scores more
42%

Police at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ksar vs Police

Ksar and Police drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 1, 2026.