ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Ruch Chorzów: Result & Stats | I Liga

ŁKS Łódź

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ruch Chorzów

11/3/2024

I Liga · Round 15Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź43%

×Draw26%

Ruch Chorzów31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchRuch Chorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

ŁKS Łódź

1.46

Ruch Chorzów

1.19

ŁKS Łódź creates 23% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

1.31

1.07

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.63

Ruch Chorzów

1.31

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.07

Ruch Chorzów

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Ruch Chorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

69%

ŁKS Łódź or Ruch Chorzów

74%

Draw or Ruch Chorzów

57%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

21%

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

77%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

43%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

18%

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals

70%

Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals

33%

Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

58%

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.31 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

43%

level

26%

Ruch Chorzów scores more

31%

ŁKS Łódź at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff