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ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
8/11/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 4Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź31%
×Draw26%
Piast Gliwice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.19
Piast Gliwice
1.45

Piast Gliwice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.26
Piast Gliwice
1.13

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.77
Piast Gliwice
1.13

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
57%
ŁKS Łódź or Piast Gliwice
74%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
69%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
13%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
70%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
33%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
12%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
77%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
42%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
42%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Piast Gliwice attack 1.13 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
31%
level
26%
Piast Gliwice scores more
43%

Piast Gliwice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Piast Gliwice

Piast Gliwice beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Łódź.