ŁKS Łódź 1–1 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

M. Rygaard 31'

K. Wacławczyk 74'

10/30/2021

I Liga · Round 15Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ŁKS Łódź56%

×Draw23%

Górnik Polkowice22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.05

ŁKS Łódź

1.83

Górnik Polkowice

1.05

ŁKS Łódź creates 74% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.61

Górnik Polkowice

1.00

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.10

Górnik Polkowice

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

78%

ŁKS Łódź or Górnik Polkowice

77%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

44%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

32%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

84%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

54%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

28%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

65%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

28%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

72%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.10 · 100 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.61 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

56%

level

23%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

22%

ŁKS Łódź at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Bancewicz

31'

M. Rygaard

35'

B. Zoladz

45+1'

49'

54'

61'

65'

65'

K. Ebenezer← M. Wolski

67'

D. Radziemski← M. Opałacz

67'

K. Wacławczyk← M. Bancewicz

71'

B. Zoladz

71'

B. Zoladz

74'

K. Wacławczyk

75'

J. Sypek← K. Szmyt

78'

D. Nowacki← M. Rozwandowicz

78'

Samu Corral← M. Rygaard

87'

S. Jurić← M. Radaszkiewicz

90+2'

A. Purzycki← M. Pałaszewski

90+2'

R. Karmelita← M. Szuszkiewicz

ŁKS

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Kibu Vicuña

65'▲Javi Moreno←▼Pirulo

65'▲K. Ebenezer←▼M. Wolski

78'▲D. Nowacki←▼M. Rozwandowicz

78'▲Samu Corral←▼M. Rygaard

87'▲S. Jurić←▼M. Radaszkiewicz

ŁKS Łódź substitutes

MorenoEbenezerNowackiCorralJurić

Manager: P. Barylski

67'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Opałacz

67'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼M. Bancewicz

75'▲J. Sypek←▼K. Szmyt

90+2'▲A. Purzycki←▼M. Pałaszewski

90+2'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

RadziemskiWacławczykSypekPurzyckiKarmelita