ŁKS Łódź vs Chrobry Głogów: Preview & Prediction

ŁKS Łódź

Preview

12:30

Chrobry Głogów

8/9/2026

I Liga · Round 3

Big match

53%

ŁKS Łódź

model favours

53%24%23%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ŁKS Łódź53%

×Draw24%

Chrobry Głogów23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.03

ŁKS Łódź

1.68

Chrobry Głogów

1.03

ŁKS Łódź creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

1.88

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.88

Chrobry Głogów

1.00

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.06

Chrobry Głogów

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

77%

ŁKS Łódź or Chrobry Głogów

76%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

47%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

28%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

81%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

50%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

24%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

64%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

28%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

69%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.88 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.00 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

53%

level

24%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

23%

ŁKS Łódź at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
ŁKS Łódź win just 18% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
Chrobry Głogów win just 22% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals