Chrobry Głogów 1–2 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

ŁKS Łódź

J. Grič 36'

M. Sitek 83'

Pirulo 54'

3/14/2025

I Liga · Round 24Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chrobry Głogów45%

×Draw25%

ŁKS Łódź31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.28

Chrobry Głogów

1.59

ŁKS Łódź

1.28

Chrobry Głogów creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.46

creates per match

1.44

1.12

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.46

ŁKS Łódź

1.44

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.12

ŁKS Łódź

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

69%

Chrobry Głogów or ŁKS Łódź

75%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

55%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

23%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

80%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

47%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

21%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

72%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

37%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

59%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.46 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.44 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

45%

level

25%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

31%

Chrobry Głogów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Gric

19'

M. Wysokinski

36'

J. Grič

46'

A. Młynarczyk← M. Wysokiński

54'

Pirulo

62'

J. Kuzdra← K. Tabiś

62'

S. Bartlewicz← J. Antczak

64'

M. Lewandowski

67'

J. Kuzdra

68'

G. Norlin← M. Mrvaljević

69'

Pirulo

69'

M. Lebedyński← M. Lewandowski

78'

H. Balić← Pirulo

80'

D. Hanc← P. Szwedzik

83'

M. Sitek

89'

A. Iwańczyk← M. Sitek

Chrobry

ŁKS

⚽

▼

Pirulo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ł. Becella

62'▲J. Kuzdra←▼K. Tabiś

62'▲S. Bartlewicz←▼J. Antczak

69'▲M. Lebedyński←▼M. Lewandowski

80'▲D. Hanc←▼P. Szwedzik

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

KuzdraBartlewiczLebedyńskiHancArndtMarcinkowskiGrzelakMuchaBonecki

Manager: J. Dziółka

46'▲A. Młynarczyk←▼M. Wysokiński

68'▲G. Norlin←▼M. Mrvaljević

78'▲H. Balić←▼Pirulo

89'▲A. Iwańczyk←▼M. Sitek

ŁKS Łódź substitutes

MłynarczykNorlinBalićIwańczykZającFałowskiTerleckiKsiążekBomba

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs ŁKS Łódź

ŁKS Łódź beat Chrobry Głogów 2-1 in I Liga on March 14, 2025.

Goals: J. Grič (36'), Pirulo (54'), M. Sitek (83').

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.

Chrobry Głogów vs ŁKS Łódź — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs ŁKS Łódź