ŁKS Łódź II 0–3 Zagłębie Lubin II: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zagłębie Lubin II

4/12/2025

II Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II45%

×Draw24%

Zagłębie Lubin II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS Łódź IIExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.34

ŁKS Łódź II

1.65

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.34

ŁKS Łódź II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

1.47

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II

1.31

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.21

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II

1.47

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw

69%

ŁKS Łódź II or Zagłębie Lubin II

76%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

55%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+

23%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals

81%

ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals

49%

ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals

23%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

74%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

39%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)

59%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.31 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.65

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more

45%

level

24%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

31%

ŁKS Łódź II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff