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ŁKS Łódź II vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
6 – 1
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
10/17/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Akademia ŁKS Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II66%
×Draw19%
Wissa Szczuczyn15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
2.27
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.97

ŁKS Łódź II creates 134% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
2.31
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.37
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
85%
ŁKS Łódź II or Wissa Szczuczyn
81%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
34%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
43%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
90%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
66%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
39%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
62%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
25%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
82%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 2.31 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.27

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
66%
level
19%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
15%

ŁKS Łódź II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź II vs Wissa Szczuczyn

ŁKS Łódź II beat Wissa Szczuczyn 6-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Akademia ŁKS Łódź in Łódź.