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ŁKS Łódź II vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
5/12/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II42%
×Draw25%
Radunia Stężyca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
1.55
Radunia Stężyca
1.36

ŁKS Łódź II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 61 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.31
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.47
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
67%
ŁKS Łódź II or Radunia Stężyca
75%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
58%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
21%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
79%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
46%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
20%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
74%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
39%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
56%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.31 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
42%
level
25%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
33%

ŁKS Łódź II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź II vs Radunia Stężyca

ŁKS Łódź II and Radunia Stężyca drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.