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ŁKS Łódź II vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
L. Dynel 61', 10'
G. Glapka 56'
3/4/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Akademia ŁKS Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II64%
×Draw18%
Concordia Elbląg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
2.44
Concordia Elbląg
1.21

ŁKS Łódź II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
2.31
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.37
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
82%
ŁKS Łódź II or Concordia Elbląg
82%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
36%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
42%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
91%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
70%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
43%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
70%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
34%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
78%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 2.31 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.44

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
64%
level
18%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
18%

ŁKS Łódź II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Dynel
56'
G. Glapka
61'
L. Dynel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: ŁKS Łódź II 3–0 Concordia Elbląg

ŁKS Łódź II beat Concordia Elbląg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 4, 2023.

Goals: L. Dynel (10', 61'), G. Glapka (56').

The match was played at Akademia ŁKS Łódź in Łódź.