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Kryvbas KR vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2019

Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
4/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stadion Hirnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Kryvbas KR22%
×Draw22%
Shakhtar Donetsk56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas KR
1.15
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.97

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kryvbas KR
1.41
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12

allows per match

Kryvbas KR
1.81
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.88

finishing

Kryvbas KR+0.84scores more
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas KR ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kryvbas KR or draw
44%
Kryvbas KR or Shakhtar Donetsk
78%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
78%

Winning margin

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
8%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
68%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
32%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
11%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
86%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
58%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
28%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas KR attack 1.41 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kryvbas KR scores more
22%
level
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
56%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kryvbas KR 1–2 Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Kryvbas KR 2-1 in Premier League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hirnyk in Kryvyi Rih.