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Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka — Premier League 2019

Kryvbas KR
Kryvbas KR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
3/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Kryvbas KR36%
×Draw24%
Kolos Kovalivka41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas KR
1.51
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kryvbas KR
1.41
Kolos Kovalivka
1.44

allows per match

Kryvbas KR
1.81
Kolos Kovalivka
1.61

finishing

Kryvbas KR+0.84scores more
Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas KR ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kryvbas KR or draw
59%
Kryvbas KR or Kolos Kovalivka
76%
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka
64%

Winning margin

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+
17%
Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals
78%
Kryvbas KR 2+ goals
44%
Kryvbas KR 3+ goals
19%
Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
80%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
48%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)
47%
Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas KR attack 1.41 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kryvbas KR scores more
36%
level
24%
Kolos Kovalivka scores more
41%

Kolos Kovalivka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka

Kryvbas KR beat Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 in Premier League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Krivoj Rog.