Kryvbas KR 2–0 Karpaty: Result & Stats

Kryvbas KR

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karpaty

Y. Tverdokhlib 69'

H. Ilić 27' (pen)

12/14/2024

Premier League · Round 17Stadion Hirnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Kryvbas KR33%

×Draw24%

Karpaty43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kryvbas KRExpected goals in this matchKarpaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.63

Kryvbas KR

1.38

Karpaty

1.63

Karpaty creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

1.52

1.73

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Kryvbas KR

1.46

Karpaty

1.52

allows per match

Kryvbas KR

1.73

Karpaty

1.29

+0.76scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Kryvbas KR+0.76scores more

Karpaty-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas KR ↓

Karpaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kryvbas KR or draw

57%

Kryvbas KR or Karpaty

76%

Draw or Karpaty

67%

Winning margin

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+

15%

Karpaty wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals

75%

Kryvbas KR 2+ goals

40%

Kryvbas KR 3+ goals

16%

Karpaty 1+ goals

80%

Karpaty 2+ goals

48%

Karpaty 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)

43%

Karpaty (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.73 · 9 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas KR attack 1.46 + Karpaty defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Karpaty attack 1.52 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kryvbas KR scores more

33%

level

24%

Karpaty scores more

43%

Karpaty at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

H. Ilić

Kryvbas KR · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

H. IlićPenalty

33'

Igor Neves

34'

Denys Miroshnichenko

56'

Yurii Vakulko

62'

D. Bizimana← Y. Vakulko

65'

Y. Kostenko← Igor Neves

69'

Y. Tverdokhlib↳ H. Ilić

78'

M. Zaderaka← A. Mykytyshyn

79'

A. Shakh← Bruninho

79'

Y. Pidlepenets← Stênio

85'

A. Riabov← A. Chachua

85'

V. Adamiuk← D. Miroshnichenko

88'

O. Kamenskyi← D. Kuzyk

89'

Y. Shevchenko← H. Ilić

89'

Matteo Amoroso← Y. Tverdokhlib

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KryvbasKarpaty

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots9

1.89Expected Goals (xG)1.09

3Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots9

7On Target3

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

338Total Passes390

248Accurate Passes308

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Premier League: Kryvbas KR 2–0 Karpaty

Kryvbas KR beat Karpaty 2-0 in Premier League on December 14, 2024.

Goals: H. Ilić (27' pen), Y. Tverdokhlib (69').

Karpaty controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Hirnyk in Kryvyi Rih.

Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Kryvbas KR 2–0 Karpaty