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Kryvbas 2020 U19 vs Oleksandria U19 — U19 League 2023

Kryvbas 2020 U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Oleksandria U19
Oleksandria U19
12/6/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kryvbas 2020 U1945%
×Draw23%
Oleksandria U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.81
Oleksandria U19
1.48

Kryvbas 2020 U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.69
Oleksandria U19
1.40

allows per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.56
Oleksandria U19
1.93

finishing

Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par
Oleksandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas 2020 U19 ↓

Oleksandria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kryvbas 2020 U19 or draw
68%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 or Oleksandria U19
77%
Draw or Oleksandria U19
55%

Winning margin

Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+
25%
Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals
84%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals
54%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals
27%
Oleksandria U19 1+ goals
77%
Oleksandria U19 2+ goals
43%
Oleksandria U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Oleksandria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.69 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.81

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.40 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Oleksandria U19 scores more
32%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kryvbas 2020 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Kryvbas 2020 U19 3–1 Oleksandria U19

Kryvbas 2020 U19 beat Oleksandria U19 3-1 in U19 League on December 6, 2025.