Kryvbas 2020 U19 1–3 Dynamo Kyiv U19

Kryvbas 2020 U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo Kyiv U19

4/11/2025

U19 League · Round 24Stadion Sparta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kryvbas 2020 U1921%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Kyiv U1958%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kryvbas 2020 U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.16

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.23

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.16

Dynamo Kyiv U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

2.76

1.56

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.69

Dynamo Kyiv U19

2.76

allows per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.56

Dynamo Kyiv U19

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas 2020 U19 ↓

Dynamo Kyiv U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kryvbas 2020 U19 or draw

42%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 or Dynamo Kyiv U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv U19

79%

Winning margin

Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+

8%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals

71%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals

35%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals

13%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 1+ goals

88%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 2+ goals

63%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Dynamo Kyiv U19 away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.69 + Dynamo Kyiv U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dynamo Kyiv U19 attack 2.76 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more

21%

level

21%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 scores more

58%

Dynamo Kyiv U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff