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Krystal vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Krystal
Krystal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
4/17/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 22Stadion Krystal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krystal32%
×Draw26%
Kramatorsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krystal
1.22
Kramatorsk
1.43

Kramatorsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

creates per match

Krystal
0.87
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Krystal
2.00
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Krystal+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krystal ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Krystal or draw
58%
Krystal or Kramatorsk
74%
Draw or Kramatorsk
68%

Winning margin

Krystal wins by 2+
13%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Krystal 1+ goals
70%
Krystal 2+ goals
34%
Krystal 3+ goals
12%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
76%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
42%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Krystal (draw refunded)
43%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krystal at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krystal attack 0.87 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Krystal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krystal scores more
32%
level
26%
Kramatorsk scores more
42%

Kramatorsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kramatorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Krystal 1–2 Kramatorsk

Kramatorsk beat Krystal 2-1 in Persha Liga on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Krystal in Kherson.