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Krylya Sovetov W vs CSKA Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Krylya Sovetov W
Krylya Sovetov W
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
6/10/2023Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 13Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Krylya Sovetov W12%
×Draw21%
CSKA Moskva W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov W
0.66
CSKA Moskva W
1.93

CSKA Moskva W creates 192% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov W
0.84
CSKA Moskva W
2.16

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov W
1.70
CSKA Moskva W
0.47

finishing

Krylya Sovetov W+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–214%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov W or draw
33%
Krylya Sovetov W or CSKA Moskva W
79%
Draw or CSKA Moskva W
88%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov W wins by 2+
3%
CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov W 1+ goals
48%
Krylya Sovetov W 2+ goals
14%
Krylya Sovetov W 3+ goals
3%
CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
85%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
57%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov W (draw refunded)
15%
CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov W at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov W attack 0.84 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.66

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Krylya Sovetov W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Krylya Sovetov W scores more
12%
level
21%
CSKA Moskva W scores more
67%

CSKA Moskva W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Krylya Sovetov W 0–7 CSKA Moskva W

CSKA Moskva W beat Krylya Sovetov W 7-0 in Supreme Division Women on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Samara.