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Krylya Sovetov vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
10/17/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov71%
×Draw19%
Volgar Astrakhan11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.12
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67

Krylya Sovetov creates 216% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
89%
Krylya Sovetov or Volgar Astrakhan
81%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
29%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
46%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
88%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
62%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
35%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
49%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
15%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
87%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
71%
level
19%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
11%

Krylya Sovetov at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Volgar Astrakhan

Krylya Sovetov beat Volgar Astrakhan 3-0 in First League on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.