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Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow — Cup 2019

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
11/23/2022CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylya Sovetov36%
×Draw23%
Spartak Moscow41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.56
Spartak Moscow
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.88
Spartak Moscow
1.61

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.76
Spartak Moscow
1.25

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
59%
Krylya Sovetov or Spartak Moscow
77%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
64%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
17%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
79%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
46%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
46%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.88 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
36%
level
23%
Spartak Moscow scores more
41%

Spartak Moscow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Krylya Sovetov 2–1 Spartak Moscow

Krylya Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 in Cup on November 23, 2022.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.