Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 104+ matches
Krylia Sovetov37%
Spartak Moscow36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 104 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Krylia Sovetov ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches
Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29
Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Krylia Sovetov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Lokomotiv Moscow
Krasnodar
CSKA MoscowSpartak Moscow
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Orenburg
Akhmat Grozny
FC Rostov
Ural
Rubin
Dinamo MoscowKrylya Sovetov
FC UFA
Anzhi
EniseyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Krylia Sovetov host Spartak Moscow on Friday, 1 May 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Spartak Moscow
Krylia Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 in Premier League on May 1, 2026.
Goals: Fernando Costanza (13' pen), M. Ugalde (64'), D. Denisov (77' o.g.).
Spartak Moscow controlled possession (73%) and registered 18 shots to 4.
The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.