Krylya Sovetov 2–0 Ska-khabarovsk: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ska-khabarovsk

8/12/2020

First League · Round 3Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov71%

×Draw18%

Ska-khabarovsk11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.74

Krylya Sovetov

2.23

Ska-khabarovsk

0.74

Krylya Sovetov creates 201% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 142 away

3.00

creates per match

1.07

0.41

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

3.00

Ska-khabarovsk

1.07

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

0.41

Ska-khabarovsk

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

89%

Krylya Sovetov or Ska-khabarovsk

82%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

29%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

47%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

89%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

65%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

38%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

52%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

17%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

87%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

71%

level

18%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

11%

Krylya Sovetov at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff